Retail sales in South Africa rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in October of 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.6 percent gain in the previous month and above market expectations of a 1.8 percent increase. Sales advanced further for general dealers (0.6 percent from 0.1 percent in September); all other retailers (6.2 percent from 4.2 percent) and household furniture, appliances and equipment (10.1 percent from 9.9 percent).
Additionally, sales of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods rebounded (3.4 percent from -0.4 percent) and declined less for hardware, paint and glass (-1.2 percent from -3.9 percent) and food, beverages & tobacco (-1.4 percent from -4.0 percent). Meanwhile, sales of pharmaceuticals goods & cosmetics rose at a softer pace (4.2 percent from 4.3 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade went up 0.6 percent, after falling 0.7 percent in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in South Africa averaged 4.49 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in September of 2006 and a record low of -6.30 percent in April of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in South Africa is expected to be 1.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in South Africa to stand at 1.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the South Africa Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.